ARCTIC: Trump's Push to Control Greenland & more – 14th Jan 2025

Góðan daginn from BA! This is the Rorshok Arctic Update from the 14th of January twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what’s going down North of the Arctic Circle!

The entire Arctic was thrown into political disarray on Tuesday the 7th, after Donald Trump, the US President-Elect, spoke at a press conference where he reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland and refused to rule out using military or economic power to achieve the goal of taking over the autonomous Danish territory. Trump’s wish to purchase Greenland isn’t new, with a failed attempt made in twenty nineteen, but this marks the first instance of military action being mentioned as a method of taking control of the world’s largest island.

The US has a relatively small Arctic Exclusive Economic Zone, with only Iceland and the Faroe Islands having smaller Arctic Economic Zones. If the US were to take control of Greenland, it would vastly expand its territory and influence in the Arctic.

To read more about why Greenland is considered so important to the US, take a look at the link in the show notes.

Donald Trump’s comments about acquiring Greenland have triggered widespread international reactions. Múte Egede, Greenland’s Prime Minister, and Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, firmly rejected Trump’s remarks during a press conference on Friday the 10th. Egede declared Greenland had no interest in becoming part of the US, focusing instead on gaining independence from Denmark.

Europe responded sharply on Wednesday the 8th, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz calling Trump’s comments incomprehensible. Jean-Noël Barrot, the French Foreign Minister, stressed Europe’s commitment to defending international law and its borders. Both leaders warned against territorial aggression.

Russia also voiced concern on the 8th, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reaffirming the Arctic as a zone of strategic importance and advocating for regional peace and stability.

In an attempt to gain public support from Greenlanders, Donald Trump Junior visited the country on Tuesday the 7th. He was welcomed by a crowd wearing caps bearing the Make America Great Again slogan synonymous with President Trump. However, on Friday the 10th, the Danish public broadcaster, DR, reported that this crowd was made up of homeless and socially vulnerable people who had been promised a free meal for their appearance at the event.

With the threat to Arctic territory present, the Norwegian islands of Svalbard may be next in line for discussions over sovereignty. On Thursday the 9th, Jonas Gahr Støre, the Norwegian Prime Minister, told public broadcaster NRK that he dismissed any concerns over the safety of the islands, saying “Svalbard is Norway, and Svalbard is safe.”

Støre also dismissed concerns over the growing presence of both Chinese and Russian researchers in Svalbard, saying that Norway invites scientists from around the world to study the unique environment in the far north, and his government has control over who enters Svalbard.

Over to Russia, whose ambitions in the Arctic largely concern turning the Northern Sea Route along the country’s north coast into the world’s newest major shipping lane. According to data published by Rosatom, the company in charge of developing the route, on Friday the 10th, Russia’s ambitions for the Northern Sea Route remain unfulfilled despite record shipping volumes in twenty twenty-four. Rosatom reported almost 38 million tons of cargo an increase of 1.6 million tons compared to twenty twenty-three. However, this falls far short of Russian President Putin’s target of 80 million tons by twenty twenty-four.

International sanctions have prevented the growth of Russia’s shipping industry to the degree the government expected, yet record shipping volumes are still being broken each year.

Russia may have hoped that with the incoming Trump government, the days of the US leveling sanctions against their Arctic operations were over. But on Friday the 10th, the US Treasury announced a massive wave of sanctions against almost all the major extraction companies, infrastructure objects, and ships that are involved in oil and gas development in the Russian Arctic, and Chinese firm Zhoushan Wison, which was covertly shipping materials to Russian gas projects.

This sanctions package has directly targeted the most important aspects of Russia’s growing energy industry in the Arctic, but it remains to be seen whether Trump will continue to hamper Russia or remove all the barriers that President Biden put in place.

The US’s Arctic ambitions are currently focused on expanding oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. However, according to the Department of the Interior, at the second-ever auction for drilling leases in the refuge, which took place on Wednesday the 8th, no bids were received.

The absence of interest echoes the events of the first auction in twenty twenty-one, underscoring skepticism from businesses about drilling in the Arctic Refuge.

Drilling supporters, including Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, blamed the Biden administration for restrictions and vowed renewed efforts under Trump’s return to office.

Still, in good news for Sullivan, Alaska's stalled natural gas industry saw new momentum on Friday the 10th as the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation announced it has partnered exclusively with the power company Glenfarne to advance the $44 billion US dollar Alaska LNG project. Set to deliver natural gas by twenty thirty-one, the initiative includes an over 800-mile (or 1,200-kilometer) pipeline, from the carbon capture plant in the North Slope to the LNG export facility Nikisk in southern Alaska.

Glenfarne will lead and fund the project, promising to supply up to 3 billion cubic feet of gas daily to Alaskan communities and global markets.

Despite environmental opposition, the project secured federal approval in twenty twenty-two, marking a significant step for Arctic energy development.

Norway’s northern economic ambitions suffered in twenty twenty-four. Norway’s government received only about 80 million US dollars in revenue from its controversial salmon tax in twenty twenty-four, far below the multi-billion kroner expectations set when the tax was introduced. The ground rent tax, implemented to capture a share of profits from large-scale salmon farming, sparked backlash within the aquaculture industry, which argued it would stifle growth and investment.

Critics say that the underwhelming revenue reflects poor tax design and unrealistic projections.

Meanwhile, smaller fish farms reportedly escaped the tax burden, leaving the government to reconsider how the tax might be restructured to balance industry growth with public revenue.

Over the border to Finland, where on Wednesday the 8th, the Finnish Supreme Court dismissed a case brought by environmental and human rights groups challenging the government’s climate policies. The groups argued that Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s administration had violated Finland’s Climate Change Act and international commitments, citing failures to meet carbon neutrality by twenty thirty-five and EU climate obligations.

The court ruled the government’s policies acknowledged EU carbon sink targets and required time to yield results, deeming it premature to label the measures unlawful.

Environmentalists warn Finland risks billion-euro penalties for failing to meet EU obligations, but this ruling, the second of its kind, leaves future challenges open if targets remain unmet.

Next to Canada, where on Tuesday the 7th, North of North, a new comedy series created by Inuit filmmakers Stacey Aglok MacDonald and Alethea Arnaquq-Baril, premiered on Canadian Television. The eight-episode series is breaking ground in Inuit representation as it portrays modern Inuit life with humor, breaking away from harmful stereotypes.

The show follows Siaja, a young single mother played by Iqaluit actor Anna Lambe in her first lead role, as she navigates life post-divorce. The creators aim to depict Inuit men as gentle and kind while celebrating strong Inuit women. Scheduled for global Netflix streaming this spring, the series aims to bring a fresh perspective on life in the Arctic.

Finally, much of the northern hemisphere has had a freezing beginning to the year, with a polar vortex sending snow and ice to southern Europe and the southern US. This caught many by surprise but thankfully on Tuesday the 7th, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published its research into this weather event. The research concludes that climate change is disrupting the normal flow of cold air in the north, sending it to unusual areas, and that this polar vortex event is likely to become more common in the future. But the research also made progress in predicting when a vortex will appear, raising hopes that we can prepare for future cold snaps well in advance.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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