ARCTIC: Security Risks & more – 16th Dec 2025

Góðan daginn from Oakley! This is the Rorshok Arctic Update from the 16th of December twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what’s going down North of the Arctic Circle!

Until the last few years, the Arctic could truly call itself a place of international peace and cooperation. Unfortunately, that peaceful status continues to break down, piece by piece. On Wednesday the 10th, the Danish Intelligence Service published its annual risk assessment which, for the first time, is classifying the US as a security risk.

The report says that Trump’s administration is only becoming more aggressive in its Arctic priorities, noting the use of economic coercion, including high tariff threats, and no longer ruling out military force even toward allies.

On the other side of the Arctic, Russia and China are working together to establish their own northern dominance.

This situation has left Denmark, Greenland and all of Europe in the middle of an unstable power struggle.

The US government’s announcement of its new chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission has added fuel to this fire with Denmark. The appointment has been granted to Thomas Emanuel Dans, a Trump ally and founder of the nationalist influence group, American Daybreak. The group was behind the two controversial visits of US political figures to Greenland earlier this year, which were intended to create discord between Greenlanders and the Danish government.

Thomas Dans is interested in the US eventually taking control of Greenland, and now he has been placed into a position where he will be shaping federal research agendas and advising lawmakers on Arctic issues.

As the prospect of conflict rises in the north, Norway is taking unprecedented steps to bolster Arctic security. The Norwegian Arctic islands of Svalbard and Jan Mayen have long existed as areas of science and cooperation, with no need for a military presence. But on Friday the 12th, The Norwegian Ministry of Defense announced it wishes to establish a military police presence on Jan Mayen. This will create a military area on the island, with a commander assigned to protect Norwegian sovereignty in the high north. The Ministry believes Jan Mayen is not capable of handling the shifting Arctic security situation unless changes like this are made.

The Norwegian government sees the High North as a place of security risk rather than an area for culture or nature. On Monday the 15th, the government published its newest national strategy document, released once every four years.

Northern Norway receives only a single mention in this document, being called Norway’s single highest security priority. The government intends to develop infrastructure and resources in the north in order to accommodate the reception and movement of allied reinforcement forces.

Introducing small measures like a new commander or base in the Arctic may do little to protect the north from the most devastating weapon in human history, the nuclear bomb. So, should the Arctic go nuclear?

In an essay published on Defense24 on Friday the 12th, Dr Aleksander Olech writes that the Nordic nations should consider building a nuclear arsenal. He believes that Europe needs to be able to independently defend its borders, with the hope of assistance from the US fading. Even though the Nordic governments have all declared their nations as non-nuclear, the need for concrete security guarantees in the countries that border the increasingly aggressive Russia means that Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Norway could soon find themselves in the hands of the bomb.

To read the piece, freely available and in English, check out the link in the show notes.

One country set to benefit from the disorder within Arctic governments is Russia. On Thursday the 11th, the Russian government announced that it is seeking foreign investment from the US in its strategic sectors, including rare-earth extraction and oil drilling in the Arctic. This announcement comes on the heels of the US government’s recent peace plan for Ukraine, which included several proposals to invest in Russian businesses.

After years of crippling economic sanctions from the EU and the US against Russia, which have significantly impacted Russia’s ability to develop its Arctic region, the US is looking to restart heavy industry development in the Russian north.

Money can be used for more than weapons and industry; it can also become a tool of justice, particularly for Indigenous communities. On Wednesday the 10th, the Danish government announced an agreement to provide individual compensation to Greenlandic women affected by a decades-long involuntary birth control program carried out from the nineteen sixties to the nineteen nineties.

Under the deal, eligible women will receive nearly $50,000 US dollars each through a reconciliation fund. While the announcement has been widely welcomed, criticism has also emerged in Greenland. Some affected women say compensation will only be paid if they can provide extensive proof of harm. Because much of the evidence is decades old, many fear they will be excluded from the scheme altogether.

An Indigenous community in Canada is also seeking reparations from a neglectful government. On Tuesday the 9th, The First Nation of Na-Cho Nyäk Dun, located in the Yukon territory, issued a suit against the territorial and federal governments for over $100 million US dollars, accusing them of negligence in the Eagle mine disaster.

Recall that The Eagle Mine Disaster refers to last year’s collapse of the Eagle Gold Mine, which released hundreds of millions of liters of cyanide-contaminated water. Some of the material escaped into the surrounding environment on Na-Cho Nyäk Dun’s traditional territory, contaminating groundwater and a fish-bearing creek.

The suit alleges that the governments have not done their diligence in preventing the spread of contaminated water, or cleaning up after the environment was damaged.

When we think of saving ourselves from pollution, people often point to the recovery of the ozone layer as a great human achievement, but that success is coming under threat in the Arctic. According to a report released by the Norwegian Environment Agency on Wednesday the 10th, nitrous oxide levels in the atmosphere rose to record levels in twenty twenty-four.

Nitrous Oxide is over 250 times more potent than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere, doesn’t break down for a hundred years, and is damaging the ozone layer above the North Pole.

In the nineteen eighties, humans worked together and successfully banned ozone-depleting gases. Fifty years on, it looks like we need to do it all over again.

The warming Arctic poses a serious threat to many of the species that live there, but new research offers hope for the survival of its most iconic resident, the polar bear. In a study published by the University of East Anglia on Friday the 12th, scientists examined how polar bear DNA is responding to rising temperatures across the Arctic.

The research found that genes linked to heat regulation and metabolism are behaving differently in bears living in warmer regions compared to those in colder areas. Once genetically similar, these populations are now showing signs of divergence as bears in faster-warming habitats begin adapting at a genetic level. While the findings offer hope for polar bears’ long-term survival, researchers stress this does not replace the need for immediate and drastic climate action.

With the Arctic changing faster than many countries and governments can react, it’s important to conserve what makes the Arctic special. UNESCO is helping to preserve Icelandic culture, as they announced on Thursday the 11th that they have added Iceland’s swimming culture to their list of Intangible Cultural Heritage, marking Iceland’s first-ever nomination to the list.

This list honors the non-physical things that make a culture unique. The Icelandic tradition of bathing in geothermal swimming pools is a social event where friends and strangers gather together to chat and relax.

UNESCO will now help to preserve and honor this tradition, ensuring it is not lost even as the north transforms.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Don’t forget to check out our new t-shirts with the link in the show notes!

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