ARCTIC: Nuclear Arms Treaty Expires & more – 10th Feb 2026

Góðan daginn from Oakley! This is the Rorshok Arctic Update from the 10th of February twenty twenty-six. A quick summary of what’s going down North of the Arctic Circle!

The future of peace and war in the Arctic has changed deeply this week. On Thursday the 5th, the Arctic news outlet, The Barents Observer, reported that the remaining nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the US expired the day before. The New Start Treaty limited each nation to 1,550 nuclear warheads, but now the potential number is limitless.

With the Russian Arctic home to its largest proportion of nuclear weapons, placed strategically at the closest distance to the US and Europe, there are fears that northern Russia will increase the number of nuclear weapons in the Arctic as international tensions continue to rise.

The events of recent weeks surrounding Greenland and the US have left NATO certain of the need to increase Arctic security. On Monday the 9th, Reuters reported that in the coming days, NATO forces will launch an Arctic Sentry mission. The details are scarce but officials said the mission would likely focus on using NATO resources in the region more effectively rather than adding large amounts of new forces. The hope is that an increase in NATO activity in the north will help defuse US tensions over Greenland by assuring US President Trump that the Arctic can defend itself.

To know more about this story, check out the Rorshok Multilateral Update with the link in the show notes.

What is the key to establishing a long-lasting peace in the Arctic? According to an essay by Andrew Erskine, published on Thursday the 5th, collaboration is the key.

The Arctic has spent decades as a zone of peace, where everything from security and defence to environmental stewardship and scientific exploration was shared between Arctic nations. But in a time of volatile politics from the US and Russia, Erskine calls on Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to form a new body, the Arctic Six.

He says if these nations can collaborate fully on Arctic matters, they can weather these geopolitical storms and uplift one another into northern prosperity.

To read the full piece, check out the link in the show notes.

Russia’s neighbour in the north, Norway, is preparing for another difficult year of espionage activity. Norwegian security services published on Friday the 6th its annual threat assessment report. The report says they expect Russia to step up its spying on Norway this year, with a focus on the Arctic, and Moscow may commit acts of sabotage aimed at undermining Oslo's support for Ukraine.

Norway has expelled several Russian intelligence officers who were operating under diplomatic pretence, but security services say they expect Russia to adapt and find new ways of disrupting and sabotaging Norway’s infrastructure.

However, that isn’t stopping Norway from progressing its lofty scientific goals in the Arctic. On Thursday the 5th, High North News reported that Arctic Ocean twenty fifty, Norway's biggest ever research project, officially kicked off at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Northern Norway.

The project has received funding for the next ten years, bringing together eighteen of Norway’s leading scientific institutions and hundreds of millions of US dollars. They will collaborate on creating the most in-depth and comprehensive study of what the Arctic Ocean will look like in twenty fifty.

We’re already making great steps in Arctic scientific research today. On Tuesday the 3rd, the American Institute of Physics published its report on accurately predicting Arctic sea ice in real time. Monitoring sea ice health and presence is vital for Arctic life, whether for an Indigenous fisher or an oil tanker. However, so many variables affect real-time prediction that it hasn’t been achieved before.

The researchers used sea ice data going back to nineteen seventy-eight to identify all the possible factors that affect sea ice presence. The model outperformed other similar prediction models when tested in September twenty twenty-four, and the researchers say they can improve it even further, creating the most accurate sea ice tool ever made.

Because we can’t predict sea ice perfectly right now, icebreaker vessels continue to play an important role in Arctic life. The US Coast Guard has long lagged far behind rivals in the north, with a tiny fleet of ice-capable vessels, but new spending hopes to close that gap.

On Monday the 2nd, the US Coast Guard announced plans to spend over $300 million US dollars to expand and modernize its Seattle icebreaker base. This base acts as the US’s western base for polar operations, and with the country aiming to build ten more large icebreakers in the coming years, the Coast Guard is spending big to build a base that can host this growing fleet.

While icebreakers are important, more money is needed to help Alaskans whose lives were severely impacted by the typhoon that battered the coast last October. At a government committee meeting on Tuesday the 3rd, Bryan Fisher, director of the Alaska Division of Homeland Security, said that the storm damage is currently estimated to cost $125 million US dollars. He called the storm damage catastrophic and noted that the cost estimate is likely to increase even more.

Fisher said that the twenty twenty-six summer will see a large-scale cleanup operation to remove hazardous waste, repair water and sewer systems and stabilize communities. Some communities have chosen to abandon their damaged villages, such as the people of Kwigillingok. Others will attempt to rebuild their lives from the ruins left behind.

Over the border in Canada, the vital Arctic habitat of the Hudson Bay could soon receive new environmental protections. On Tuesday the 3rd, the government of Manitoba announced it is spending about 200,000 US dollars to explore the possibility of establishing a national marine conservation area in western Hudson Bay.

The Hudson Bay is home to many of the most charismatic and vulnerable Arctic species. Beluga whales, narwhals and polar bears all rely on the health of the bay. If a nationally protected area is established, it can create a safe haven for wildlife, while also providing opportunities for eco-tourism to local communities.

Local environmental protections are good for northern health, but the impacts of climate change continue to cause serious harm. On Wednesday the 4th, Reuters reported that Greenland had shattered its January temperature record this year.

The average temperature this January in the capital of Nuuk, recorded by the Danish Meteorological Institute, was slightly above zero degrees Celsius, about thirty-two Fahrenheit. This historical January average temperature for Nuuk is almost minus eight degrees Celsius, or seventeen degrees Fahrenheit.

With temperatures rising four times faster than the world's average, Greenland is seeing climate change affect everything in daily life.

Let’s move over to Sweden, where the government is being investigated for corruption. On Tuesday the 3rd, Swedish broadcaster TV4 published its investigation into the cover-up of environmental crimes by the regional Norrbotten government.

The investigation alleges that the mining company LKAB and its mine in the city of Kiruna, northern Sweden, leaked millions of litres of diesel into the environment in twenty twenty-one. LKAB reported the leak immediately to the County Administrative Board, but the Board did not inform the police until twenty twenty-four.

While investigating this event, TV4 uncovered evidence of 200 more environmental crimes that the local government has purposefully not reported to the police.

An anti-corruption police force is now working to uncover the secrets at play in the Swedish Arctic.

Speaking of environmental damage, Iceland is experiencing a lot more earthquakes than usual. The Icelandic Met Office said on Monday the 9th that an earthquake swarm around the island of Eldey, located in the southwest just off the coast, has caused around 600 earthquakes over the prior weekend.

Eldey, which translates to fire island due to its history of volcanic eruptions, hasn’t seen an eruption for over 100 years. However, Benedikt Ófeigsson, the director of the Met Office, believes that there are usually around 100 to 150 years between eruptions on Eldey and the island will likely see an eruption at some point. He highlighted that this earthquake swarm hasn’t triggered any volcanic activity, so the island that is home to the world’s largest population of northern gannets can breathe easy for now.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

A few of you have asked for an easy way to connect and get updates on Rorshok and the Arctic Update, since maybe someday we will get it going again. We will set up a way for you to let us know you are interested, and share it with you this coming week. And hey,

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