ARCTIC: Bleak Arctic Warming Prediction & more – 3rd June 2025

Góðan daginn from BA! This is the Rorshok Arctic Update from the 3rd of June twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what’s going down North of the Arctic Circle!

The outlook for the future of the Arctic hasn’t improved. On Wednesday the 28th of May, the UN Weather Agency published its expectations for the world’s climate over the next five years. While the world is forecast to see general temperatures reach record levels, the Arctic is expected to warm more than three times the global average in that time period, with its temperatures predicted to be two point five degrees Celsius, or thirty-six degrees Fahrenheit, above the region’s average.

Alongside warming, extreme weather events such as wildfires, droughts, rising sea levels, sudden intense rainfall, and melting glaciers are all predicted to become more common in the Arctic over the next five years.

To see the UN report for yourself, and how your country’s weather is due to change in the next five years, take a look at the link in the show notes.

Meanwhile, the EU has been underestimating its Arctic emissions. On Wednesday the 28th of May, the International Council on Clean Transportation published its newest report on the state of shipping in the Arctic, revealing that between twenty fifteen and twenty twenty-one, black carbon emissions almost doubled in the Arctic Ocean, with EU-regulated vessels responsible for sixty percent of carbon dioxide emissions.

According to previous reports, the EU vessels were responsible for only 10% of the Arctic emissions. However, the updated findings now include ships that don’t fly an EU flag but are hired by an EU nation, attributing the pollution from these vessels to the EU. This more accurate data collection has revealed the true extent of the EU’s impact on the Arctic.

Even if the EU cuts down its shipping emissions, Russia is about to massively expand its northern shipping activity. According to a story by the news agency, The Barents Observer, from Wednesday the 28th of May, Russia has prepared five of its shadow fleet natural gas carriers to enter the Arctic.

They will be expected to collect natural gas from the Yamal and Arctic LNG2 gas facilities before attempting to sell the fossil fuels around the world. The ships remain under EU sanctions and are at risk of being detained by governments trying to stem the flow of Russian gas across the globe.

As Russia focuses more of its resources in the north, the threat of war has finally arrived. On Sunday the 1st of June, newspaper Kyiv Post reported that the Ukrainian military had successfully launched a secret operation to strike against the Olenya air base, located near Murmansk in northwestern Russia. Preliminary figures released by the Ukrainian military estimates at least forty heavy Russian bombers were destroyed in the attack, placing the value of the destruction somewhere between $2 billion and $7 billion US dollars.

Only 200 kilometers, about 120 miles, away from the Olenya air base lies a Norway that is very concerned about the level of military activity taking place nearby. In our last episode, we reported that Finland was preparing for Russian aggression. This week, on Wednesday the 28th of May, Norwegian police in the far north announced they will follow suit.

At the Storskog border checkpoint between Norway and Russia, new fences are being built to counter potential aggression. Recall that in early twenty twenty-four, Russia flew almost 6,000 African and Asian asylum seekers to the Finnish border to create political instability.

This border hasn’t historically required heavy security due to positive relations, but that era appears to be over, as the two nations now brace for defence.

Moving over to Greenland, where the government has issued a warning to the US and the EU: increase mining investments or risk Chinese investment taking priority. On Tuesday the 27th of May, Naaja Nathanielsen, Greenland’s Minister for Mineral Resources, stressed the need for investment in mining and tourism to diversify Greenland’s economy. She noted that while Greenland prefers partnerships with the EU or US, delays could force it to consider Chinese involvement.

Greenland’s reserves include gold and copper, but a mineral cooperation agreement with the US is expiring, and Trump’s administration has shown little interest in renewing it, instead it threatened Greenland with talk of taking over the country. Greenland wants to cooperate, but needs the US and the EU to take proper action now.

Foreign investment is desperately needed in Greenland because locals are choosing to move away in large numbers. As reported by the news agency, High North News, on Monday the 27th of May, high living costs and poor health services are causing many people to move from Greenland to Denmark, and those who stay are having fewer children.

The national statistics body, Statistics Greenland, estimates that by twenty fifty, the population might fall by around twenty percent. Unless Greenland can create a more affordable and supportive society, there might not be many people left in the near future.

Alaska has recovery hopes too, but for its struggling fishing industry. The Alaskan news agency, The Alaska Beacon, reported on Thursday the 29th of May that state lawmakers have made progress this week on two bills aimed at providing real support to Alaskan fishing companies that have seen a near total collapse in recent years, due to climate change, high operating costs, and increasing global competition.

One of the bills provides a significant financial loan to a state organization that supports local fishing companies, and the other helps small companies get insurance. These two bills are seen as small steps toward a much larger problem, but Alaska lawmakers have a number of other bills in progress that hope to rescue the once lucrative fishing industry from failure.

Over the border in Canada, the never-ending fight for the right to learn Indigenous languages continues. On Wednesday, the 28th of May, the Supreme Court of Canada announced it has dismissed the Government of Nunavut's attempt to halt a lawsuit concerning Inuit language teaching in public schools.

This lawsuit began in twenty twenty-one when the Inuit non-profit Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated (or NTI) sued the local government for not providing Inuktut education as mandated by law. The NTI argues this violates the right to equality and education for the Indigenous communities in the territory, and the Supreme Court of Canada agrees, with the case now going to trial and the chance for equal language education another step closer.

In Sweden, the country’s most toxic lake, Ala Lombolo, in Kiruna, located up north, is set for a cleanup after decades of worsening pollution. On Wednesday the 28th of May, Swedish mining company LKAB announced it would take full responsibility for both the cost and execution of the lake's recovery.

For decades, the lake accumulated pollutants from industrial waste, municipal sewage, and the dumping of 175 boxes of WWII-era munitions. While the munitions were removed twelve years ago, hundreds of kilograms of mercury remain. LKAB plans to dredge the contaminated material and use a novel freeze-drying method to separate water from solids.

Pending environmental approval, the cleanup is scheduled to begin in twenty twenty-seven, potentially making the lake safe for swimming once again within a few years.

Finally, there’s bad news for the food lovers above the Arctic Circle. On Tuesday the 27th of May, Finnish newspaper YLE reported that the world’s northernmost Michelin Star restaurant, Restaurant Tapio in Kuusamo, northern Finland, is closing down. The owners, Johanna Mourujärvi and Connor Laybourne, recently welcomed a baby boy and have chosen to close Tapio with immediate effect.

The Arctic has only one other Michelin Star restaurant, with Finnish foodies now needing to travel to a remote fjord in western Greenland to visit the KOKS restaurant in Ilimanaq, which boasts a rare double Michelin Star status.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Want to pass along an episode? Just head to www.rorshok.com/arctic to download any of them as .mp3 files. The link’s in the show notes!

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